Critical Analysis Of Possible 1.5 C Compatible Emission Pathways

Introduction Of Critical Analysis Of Possible 1.5 C Compatible Emission Pathways

The percentage of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere generated due to human activity is rising to great levels, such levels are threats to the environment and to human health. The distribution of carbon particles all over the environment is a chief cause for the change of global climate vastly and extensively. The cycle of carbon that is followed all over the world is evaluated with the help of the global carbon budget that is released to bring enhancements in the policies regarding the conservation of climate on a worldwide scale. The data set for the global carbon change is used to analyse some possible methods that can be applied to reduce global warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius and the target which is held is 1.5 degrees Celsius within the year 2100. This goal is made in accordance with the agreement of Paris where certain contributions needed to be defined by all the nations to enhance the climate policies after 2020 and these were termed National Determined Contributions.

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Discussion

National determined contributions

Global warming has risen to a level of 1 degree globally, and because of this devastating effect on nature is being observed, along with the degradation of the lifestyle of human beings. It is decided as a pledge and a goal to be obtained within the year 2100 by limiting the warming to less than 1.5 units. The nations of the world have declared some goals like this to improve the environmental conditions and for a sustainable future. There are serious threats all over the world due to the rise in global temperatures because of the harmful emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels (Teske, S. (2019)). The emission of greenhouse gases is needed to be limited to an extent to decrease the percentage of environmental carbon by 45 percent to limit worldwide global warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius. Though it is a goal that is mentioned according to NDC for several nations to decrease the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, the efforts of the nations are not enough to decrease the level of emissions because of the combustion of fossil fuels, the development of the nation’s bring a rise in global temperature as industrial processes are one of the chief sources of greenhouse gases.

Figure 1: Features of 1.5 degree Celsius plan

(Source: self-made ion draw.io)

Global Carbon Cycle

The beginning of the industrial age marked the age of the rise in the carbon percentage in the environment. The beginning of the industrial age witnessed a rise of carbon in the environment by 227 ppm, in the year 1750 (Allen et al, 2019). In the rudimental phase of this industrial age, the carbon dioxide in the air rose and this was mainly because of the release of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere due to cutting off forests and vegetation. Since the industrial era, the primary and most dominant factor responsible for the increase of carbon in the environment is because of the exhausts of vehicles releasing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere generated by the combustion of fossil fuels. This percentage of carbon rising in the environment because of the release of carbon dioxide by the burning of fossil fuels increased since the early ages when vehicles were discovered in the year 1950 (Anderson et al, 2020). There is an evident cycle of carbon that maintains the transmission of carbon between storehouses of carbon in the oceans, atmosphere, and terrestrial regions in a daily manner and this cycle has continued for many millennials and is responsible for many environmental changes occurring due to the rise of environmental carbon.

Figure 1: Rise of CO2 in the atmosphere

(https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-021-00097-8)

The curve that is presented here is the evaluation curve of the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere of Earth in a layer of the marine boundary. In the year May 2022, there was a rise of carbon dioxide in the environment by 421 ppm, from a value of 280 ppm of the average carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which was prevalent in the mid-18th era (Clark et al, 2020). The data obtained on the average carbon dioxide released in the atmosphere, are being collected by NOAA/ESRL and these data are obtained from a variety of locations and stations such as the South Pole stations and Mauna Loa. [Refer to appendix 1]

Figure 2: Global Carbon Cycle

(Source: https://www.nature.com)

The diagram shows the complete flow of carbon between the reservoirs, and the uncertainty of the rate of growth of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is neglected from the flow diagram of the carbon cycle. The uncertainty of the rate of growth of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is very minute about 0.02 GtCyr^-1.

Uncertainties of Current emission sources of Carbon

Inventories to enhance the environmental conditions are used by several committees that are responsible for the climate in the nations, whereas there are a number of uncertainties that are less attended to. Many techniques are used to get the details of the total carbon dioxide that is released in the atmosphere along with the release of other compounds and also to account for the use of carbon in industries (Duan et al, 2021). Some uncertainties that are generated by the release of carbon dioxide from the combustion of fossil fuels are, the carbon content of the fuel, the total calorific value of the fuel, and the fraction of oxidation of the fuel. The total uncertainties obtained from the release of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by the year 2300 are going to rise by 15 percent, and the uncertainties of the non-carbon dioxide components obtained from the burning of fossil fuels are calculated with the estimation of the ratios of co-emission that are varied with time (Grassi et al, 2021). The rate of emission of carbon in the atmosphere depends on the amount of carbon in the fuel. The curves of the fuel extraction data of the different types of fuels with different levels of carbon content provide the rate of release of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from the burning of fuels.

Figure 3: Curve of combustion of different fuels

(https://www.nature.com)

Future emission pathways

Mitigation and adaptation are the two techniques that are needed by future generations to handle the problems of climate change due to the release of carbon dioxide. The accumulation of greenhouses is needed to be limited (Hänsel et al, 2020). There are many sources of greenhouse gases emission, companies, individuals, communities, and effective climate policies to bring sustainable development in the future times by decreasing the amount of carbon in the environment. The diverse values of the environment should be considered and the responsibilities to lessen harmful emissions should be realised. The estimation of the reduction of carbon dioxide can be predicted by the use of future emission policies as from 720 ppm to 430 ppm (Roe et al, 2019). The goal is aimed to obtain with the help of the future mission pathways to maintain the level of warming in the nations within 2 degrees as the conditions were before the era of the industrial age. The level of warming is targeted to achieve less than 1.5 degrees Celsius when the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere is less than 430 ppm of carbon dioxide. Several other techniques such as the use and supply of energy supplies containing less percent of carbon also increase the chances of a sustainable environment in the future times and decrease the amount of carbon in the atmosphere. Environmental policies should be formulated to reduce the level of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere.

Importance of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius

The limit of warming which is believed to be achieved by the year 2050, is a very essential goal that is being set by the United Nations. The limit of global warming is set as less than 1.5 degrees which is an essential feature for the sustenance of human habitation in small islands in future times (IPCC (2018)). The carbon dioxide that is emitted into the atmosphere should be reduced by 45 percent by the year 2030 to achieve the aimed goal of warming less than 1.5 degrees Celsius by the year 2050. The devastating effects of global warming are being experienced in the degradation of the polar ice caps, coral deaths, and also in natural calamities and natural devastations. The worst impacts of the change in climate can be avoided in the future times by maintaining the level of warming at less than 2 degrees Celsius. The committee of IPCC has instructed the government of the nations to limit the range of global warming to a limit of 1.5 degrees. Global warming has reached a level of 1-degree Celsius and the devastating effects are all over the globe in the form of a rise in sea level, degradation of polar ice caps, the occurrence of famines, droughts, and other natural calamities. Hence, it can be said that the overshooting of the 1.5 degree Celsius limit is being set to eliminate the dangers of environmental calamities such as famines and droughts and to enhance the lifestyle of the people living in future times.

Negative emission technologies

The techniques which are used to reduce the harmful emissions emitted into the atmosphere are named the technologies needed to achieve better negative emissions. There are a number of steps in achieving this negative emission and each of the techniques has its own set of pros and cons. There are several technical barriers that hurdle the implementation of better techniques for negative emissions, such as the direct coupling technique where carbon dioxide is directly captured from the atmosphere and stored which reduces the atmospheric carbon such as in DAC plants (Friedlingstein et al (2020)). One Negative emission technology is the management of radiation from the sun, where global warming is decreased at a global and extensive level when the rays of the sun are partly refracted back into space from the surface of the earth using thermal management techniques. This technique which is used as an extensive technique to reduce carbon presence in the environment can also affect the other components of the environment and the ecosystem. This technique of solar radiation management is also dependent on the climatic and economic conditions of the respective regions. Another technique that is developed to decrease the level of carbon in the environment is by injecting tons of carbon dioxide into a subsurface level in the atmosphere, there are several risks associated with this technique such as an increase in human-caused earthquakes, along with a variation of pressure in the subsurface level, and can also affect the human health as the injected carbon dioxide also induces salinity in underground water. Certain steps to ensure the safety of the carbon dioxide that is injected and saline waters are generated in this process, the waters are managed and so these are some of the technical difficulties of using the technologies for this tactic of negative emissions.

The total negative emission is represented in the above pathway, which ranges between a numbers of megatons to about 500 units of global warming across the different models. A potential factor that is dependent on both social and political factors is responsible for the reduction of the peak of the warming so that the extreme peak is obtained in between a range of 0.13 and 0.34 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. The emissions of the greenhouse gases in the NDC model are being compared to the scenarios of the stringest mitigation where the peak temperature reach a level below 2 degree Celsius and where the overshoot is limited. In the second curve, the residuals obtained from the emission of non-carbon dioxide species are plotted after reaching a certain level of carbon dioxide emissions where there are zero emissions of carbon dioxide at a condition of a particularly defined temperatures Stabilised condition. The pieces of information from the sets of data are represented in the box and the whiskers represent the remaining distribution. In the third curve, the relationship is evaluated between the “cumulative MMCE” and the drop in temperature because of the overshoot temperature. The red dot represents the scenarios with net zero emissions and the blue dots represent the scenarios obtained at the end of the century. The last curve represents the timing at which the zero carbon dioxide emissions are met being consistent at low overshoot conditions which is within 1.5 degree Celsius and in times when the level of warming is 2 degrees Celsius. The count of the total number of net zero scenarios can be represented by the evaluation of the height of the bars in the bar graph.

Conclusion

The assignment is done to evaluate a critical analysis of the pathways for compatible emission for maintaining a global warming level of not more than 1.5 degrees Celsius. The global carbon cycle is defined here along with the parameters which are being set as the NDCs to decrease the level of carbon in the atmosphere. The level of global warming in the world is 1 degree and for this, there are several devastating effects happening such as droughts, famines, and so on. Techniques for sustainable environmental conditions in the future times are stated in this assignment along with the technical difficulties faced while dealing with the techniques for sustainable environmental conditions. Several techniques formulated by the combination of behavioral, technological, and social policies are needed to be applied to reduce emissions and to reduce the level of warming to less than 1.5 degree Celsius.

References

Book

Teske, S. (2019). Achieving the Paris climate agreement goals: Global and regional 100% renewable energy scenarios with non-energy GHG pathways for+ 1.5 C and+ 2 C. Available at - https://library.oapen.org/bitstream/handle/20.500.12657/22899/1007262.pdf?sequence=1[Accessed on 03.03.2023]

Journals

Allen, M., Antwi-Agyei, P., Aragon-Durand, F., Babiker, M., Bertoldi, P., Bind, M., Brown, S., Buckeridge, M., Camilloni, I., Cartwright, A. and Cramer, W., 2019. Technical Summary: Global warming of 1.5 C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.

Anderson, K., Broderick, J.F. and Stoddard, I., 2020. A factor of two: how the mitigation plans of ‘climate progressive’nations fall far short of Paris-compliant pathways. Climate Policy, 20(10), pp.1290-1304.

Clark, M.A., Domingo, N.G., Colgan, K., Thakrar, S.K., Tilman, D., Lynch, J., Azevedo, I.L. and Hill, J.D., 2020. Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5 and 2 C climate change targets. Science, 370(6517), pp.705-708.

Duan, H., Zhou, S., Jiang, K., Bertram, C., Harmsen, M., Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D.P., Wang, S., Fujimori, S., Tavoni, M. and Ming, X., 2021. Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5 C warming limit. Science, 372(6540), pp.378-385.

Grassi, G., Stehfest, E., Rogelj, J., Van Vuuren, D., Cescatti, A., House, J., Nabuurs, G.J., Rossi, S., Alkama, R., Viñas, R.A. and Calvin, K., 2021. Critical adjustment of land mitigation pathways for assessing countries’ climate progress. Nature Climate Change, 11(5), pp.425-434.

Hänsel, M.C., Drupp, M.A., Johansson, D.J., Nesje, F., Azar, C., Freeman, M.C., Groom, B. and Sterner, T., 2020. Climate economics support for the UN climate targets. Nature Climate Change, 10(8), pp.781-789.

Roe, S., Streck, C., Obersteiner, M., Frank, S., Griscom, B., Drouet, L., Fricko, O., Gusti, M., Harris, N., Hasegawa, T. and Hausfather, Z., 2019. Contribution of the land sector to a 1.5 C world. Nature Climate Change, 9(11), pp.817-828.

Sampene, A., Li, C., Agyeman, F. and Brenya, R., 2021. Analysis of the BRICS countries’ pathways towards a low-carbon environment. BRICS Journal of Economics, 2(4), pp.77-102.

Yu, S., Lehne, J., Blahut, N. and Charles, M., 2021. 1.5 C Steel: Decarbonizing the Steel Sector in Paris-Compatible Pathways. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

Website

IPCC (2018). Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways. Available at-https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/ [Accessed on 03.03.2023]

Article

Friedlingstein et al (2020). Global Carbon Budget. Earth System Science Data. 12: 3269–3340.Available at-https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3269-2020[Accessed on 03.03.2023]